The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Nigeria on the 29th of February 2020 but there were confusions and some periods of inactiviyty until on the 23rd of march when a nationwide lockdown was imposed. Following this, all educational institutions, markets and places of worship were closed down. Motivations started coming on the need to visualise the trend and spread, especially as this was already going on for some countries like Australia (Krispin and Byrnes 2020).

The work by (Krispin and Byrnes 2020) was a beautiful animation of COVID-19 cases in Australia at that time disaggregated to the States of Australia. Therefore, efferts were made to also produce the animation for Nigeria. This effort was met with disappointment as the Nigerian data supplied to Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) Coronavirus depository was not dis-aggregated to States. After days of re-compiling the data from Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the animation was produced and shared on Facebook. The outcome really indicated that the data needed further wrangling to produce good looking visuals.

First animation

Animation after dis-aggregation

There the venture to provide visual update started. Here is what the raw data from NCDC looked like!

Fig. 1 Raw data as collected from NCDC

However, it was difficuit to make any sense out of the raw data as you can observe in Fig. 1. Therefore, further processing of the data was required. In view of this, the data was accumulated for the whole country and presented in the following visuals. At this point, since the data points were few, elaborate analysis could not be carried out, so equal number of days forecast was invented. That is, a polynomial of two degree forecast of equal number of days since the advent of the virus in Nigeria.

Fig. 1a Daily observed cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria

Fig. 2 Perecentages and previous days differences of COVID-19 in Nigeria

Fig. 3 Percentages as in the previous visual

Fig. 4 Polynomial forecast of accumulated COVID-19 cases in Nigeria

the story continues

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Table 1 Regressiion estimates of the effect of price of PMS on COVID-19 and vice versa

Fig. 17 Relationship between COVID-19 and PMS price in Nigeria

Fig. 18 Relationship between PMS price and COVID-19 in Nigeria

Krispin, Rami, and Jarrett Byrnes. 2020. Coronavirus: The 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 (2019-nCoV) Dataset. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=coronavirus.